Australian Carbon Credit Units
vor 3 Wochen
Part 1: Bottoms Up Modelling of Demand and Supply for ACCUs Over the Next 10 Years
Objective: Develop a comprehensive analysis of the demand and supply for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) over the next decade.Bottoms Up Modelling of Corporate Emitters and Projected Annual Demand for ACCUs:Identify Major Corporate Emitters:Compile a list of significant corporate emitters in Australia, segmented by industry.
Emissions Data Collection:Gather historical emissions data for these corporates.
Use data from regulatory reports, corporate sustainability disclosures, and industry-specific emissions databases.
Projection Analysis:Project annual demand for ACCUs using corporate sustainability reports, industry growth forecasts, and regulatory requirements.
Demand Aggregation:Aggregate individual demands to derive the total projected annual demand for ACCUs.
Bottoms Up Modelling of ACCU Projects Registered or Forecasted and Projected Annual Supply:
- Current ACCU Projects Analysis: Identify and analyze existing ACCU projects, including their capacity and projected ACCU generation.
- Future Projects Forecasting: Forecast new ACCU projects using trends in project registrations, government policies, and industry annoucements.
- Supply Aggregation: Aggregate the projected annual ACCU supply from current and future projects.
- Predicted Shortfall of ACCUs and Forecast Invested Capital Required:
- Supply-Demand Gap Analysis: Compare the projected annual supply of ACCUs against the projected demand to identify potential shortfalls.
- Investment Requirement Calculation: Estimate the capital required to bridge the ACCU shortfall, including the cost of developing new ACCU projects and scaling existing ones.
- Government Purchase Mechanism:
- Mechanism Analysis: Detail how the Australian government’s Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) operates, focusing on the purchasing mechanism for ACCUs.
- Policy Review: Review existing and potential future government policies impacting ACCU purchases.
- Impact Assessment: Assess how government purchases will influence ACCU demand and pricing over the next decade.
Deliverables:
- Comprehensive report detailing the bottoms up modelling of ACCU demand and supply.
- Data sets and projections used for modelling.
- Analysis of the ACCU shortfall and investment requirements.
- Detailed review of the government purchase mechanism for ACCUs
Part 2: Analysis of Build vs Buy for ACCUs Across Different Methodologies
Objective: Evaluate the feasibility and financial implications of building versus buying ACCUs across different methodologies, with detailed steps and processes for each approach.Tasks:
Methodology Overview:
- List of Methodologies: Provide an overview of various ACCU generation methodologies such as environmental planting, soil carbon sequestration, savanna burning, and avoided deforestation.
- Key Characteristics: Detail the key characteristics, benefits, and challenges of each methodology.
Build Process Analysis:
Project Feasibility Study:
- Site Selection Criteria: Define criteria for selecting suitable land for ACCU projects, including soil quality, climate conditions, and accessibility.
- Regulatory Compliance: Outline regulatory requirements and compliance steps.
- Environmental Impact Assessment: Conduct environmental impact assessments for potential sites.
Land Acquisition:
- Land Identification: Identify and evaluate potential land parcels for project development.
- Acquisition Process: Outline the process for acquiring land, including negotiations, legal requirements, and transaction closure.
Land Preparation and Planting (as applicable):
- Preparation Steps: Detail the steps for land preparation, including soil testing, clearing, and infrastructure setup.
- Planting and Maintenance: Provide a detailed planting schedule, species selection, planting techniques, and ongoing maintenance requirements.
Monitoring and Reporting (as applicable):
- Data Collection: Establish protocols for data collection and monitoring of carbon sequestration.
- Verification and Reporting: Outline the verification process for ACCUs and reporting requirements.
Buy Process Analysis:
Market Analysis:
- Analyze the market for purchasing ACCUs, including key suppliers and pricing trends.
- Procurement Process: Outline the steps for procuring ACCUs, including supplier evaluation, contract negotiation, and purchase agreements.
- Risk Assessment: Assess risks associated with purchasing ACCUs, such as price volatility and supply reliability.
Financial Feasibility Analysis:
- Cost Comparison: Compare the costs of building versus buying ACCUs for each methodology.
- Revenue Projections: Project potential revenues from selling ACCUs generated by built projects.
- Return on Investment: Calculate IRR/break-even analysis for both building vs buying scenarios
- Sensitivity Analysis: Perform sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in key variables impact financial feasibility.
Deliverables:
- Detailed report on the build versus buy analysis for ACCUs.
- Step-by-step process documentation for building a prototype ACCU project.
- Full financial feasibility study, including cost comparison, revenue projections, and IRR analysis.
- Risk assessment for both building and buying ACCUs.
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